Lottery numbers~

[Darkwarrior]

that's a shop, i can tell from the pixels and having seen quite a few shops in my time.

[Chrisstreb]

no such luck with the Bonanza... closest I was was ironically with '12345' for Rank 4

[Lutia]

So the PS2 users were rigged big time in this lottery:

http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.html?forum=10;mid=121490563211047666;num=30;page=1

In case you're wondering, E/O = Evens/Odds

[Boba]

Only if they were lazy enough to not pick their own numbers!

And the numbers SE drew were supposedly random anyway, so they still had the same chance as everyone else. lolalla etc..~

[Lutia]

And the numbers SE drew were supposedly random anyway, so they still had the same chance as everyone else.

They were probably calculated to have as least winners as possible.

[Boba]

Well duh, but thats not having PS2 users rigged, thats everyone being rigged. If SE hadnt tampered with the numbers (and obviously they did) even if the ps2 users could only get OEOEOE generated by their moogles or w/e, they would have still had the same chance as everyone else that entered with, or without their numbers generated for them.

[Nieryo]

From the horse's mouth:

Mog Bonanza marbles available for purchase from May 16 till May 28.
The winning numbers will be announced on June 30.
Prizes available for collection from July 2 till July 31.

Does it really take 33 days to draw 5 random numbers? I'm kinda surprised that anyone's surprised by the underhandedness of their 'lotto' lol, and yeah, SE does strike me as the assholish type of company that would honestly go through the trouble to rig this sort of stuff. Any word on how many NA/JP/EU T1 winners there were? INCREASE THE SCANDAL SIZE!!!

[ItsSeflol]

I heard SE killed JFK with a magic bullet, too.

[Lutia]

Ope... I didnt see that <_<

Too bad its on my fkn galka mule ._.

[Mrdude]

I


HATE


YOU

[Seiriem]

I


HATE


YOU

[Sukasaroth]

the fuck.

[Bodycount]

Lutia's mules get everything >(

[Lutia]

Dalmy where?

[Lolmy]

faggot

[Nieryo]

k well, i'm bored and decided to look into the numbers and whatnot.

according to ffxi ah, there's about 1.2million accounts in ffxi. let's go ahead and assume that about 350k of those accounts either didn't play the lotto or are no longer active/banned (about 1/4 gone). that leaves about 850k people playing the lotto.

given there's 10 balls you can pick and a 1/10, 1/100, 1/1000, 1/10000, and 1/100000 chances of winning t5 through t1 respectively. altogether then, there were about 8,500,000 balls being played with.

thus the basic results are this:
tier -- median-----------------standard deviation-----------------actual
t5: -- 850,000----------------------874.64 ----------------------- 837,417
t4: -- 85,000------------------------290.8 -------------------------60,461
t3: -- 8,500-------------------------92.14--------------------------6,854
t2: -- 850---------------------------29.15--------------------------1,234
t1: -- 85-----------------------------9.21-----------------------------56

all except t2 fall well below the standard deviation, which is kinda weird that it didn't...

few things to note tho:
1. idk how many balls were actually played or how accurate ffxi is for the number of characters per server as it may only list characters that have looked at jeuno AH.
2. i assume that each number is as likely as any other to be picked and played, which we already know isn't the case given SE's 'random' quick pick numbers generating EOEOE and OEOEO numbers only supposedly (i dont follow up on alla threads).
3. i left my nerdy calculator and probability book at school and am doing these calculations from memory and treating them like binomial stats, since they basically are anyways (either you win or you lose).
4. im incredibly bored and didn't check my work.

edit: fixed spacing

[Mrdude]

wow, you weren't lying when you said you were bored ^^

[Aemora]

Or

People picked numbers.

Numbers were random when made by the computer.

SE had a bag with 10 numbers in it.

SE picked out 1 ball ... The NUmber '1' and this was Rank5 Prize.
SE placed ball back into bad, picked out another ball which was 4, put it back into bag, mixed again, the picked again and drew 4 again, which made '44' and thus the Rank4 Prize.

And so on, so forth.

SE puts these numbers into the calculator on their server, and gave them the answer as to how many winners there are TOTAL. Who cares what the "average" in on each server, really...

[Nieryo]

Who cares what the "average" in on each server, really...

What...? When did I ever bring up average per server? My median number is the expected number of winners combined; if you wanted average per server you'd have to weigh server populations and what not, in which case I agree, who cares. And number replacement has absolutely nothing to do with changing the odds since it's already in consideration and I counted each tier independently as a binomial event (either you won or lost with those given odds, and none of the ending digits were shared among any tier) <.<..... so I don't get what you're trying to say.

If you want to say that my guess is really inaccurate either way, then ya, I agree. Still, you could double or triple the estimated standard dev's and the numbers would still fall outside. I'm not saying they definitely did rig the lotto, but it's likely that they did just from looking at the numbers, the fact they took 32 days to come up with the numbers, and that they're SE.

[Aemora]

WHO CARES?!?!?!

The reason it took them 32 days, is because some people would buy shitloads of combinations for a better chance at winning. 32 days means that 1 more day than a month, which means 2 months fees for playing the game, and the fact it ended Mid-way through a month and prizes were available 2 months later SAYS THEY ARE NOT STUPID.